22 novembre 2008
US power 'to decline by 2025'
US
economic and political power is set to decline over the next two
decades and the world will grow more dangerous as the battle for scarce
resources intensifies, a report by US intelligence agencies has
predicted.
The current global financial crisis is the beginning of a weakening
of the US dollar to the point where it becomes "first among equals",
said the National Intelligence Council's (NIC) Global Trends 2025
report published on Thursday. China and India were likely to join the US at the top of a multipolar world and compete for influence, the report added. Russia's future was less certain, but Iran, Turkey and Indonesia were also seen by the report as gaining power. "The world of the near future will be subject to an increased
likelihood of conflict over scarce resources, including food and water,
and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist
groups with greater access to nuclear weapons," said the report. "Widening gaps in birth rates and wealth-to-poverty ratios, and the
uneven impact of climate change, could further exacerbate tensions." Nuclear risk The reports are produced every five years and based on a global survey of experts by US intelligence analysis. It also highlighted the risk of a nuclear arms race in the Middle
East where a number of countries have considered developing or
acquiring technologies that would be useful to make nuclear weapons. "Over the next 15-20 years, reactions to the decisions Iran makes
about its nuclear programme could cause a number of regional states to
intensify these efforts and consider actively pursuing nuclear
weapons," the report said. It also said some African and South Asian states could wither away
altogether and that criminal gangs could take over at least one state
in central Europe. The document also predicted that conflicts of food and water
resources could increase but that new technology could help develop a
replacement for oil-based technologies. "Types of conflict we have not seen for a while - such as over resources - could reemerge," it said. Global wealth was seen as shifting from the West to the energy-rich
Gulf states and Russia, and to Asia, the rising centre of manufacturing
and some service industries. Global disparities between the rich and poor would grow, the report said, leaving Africa vulnerable to increased instability. Iraq record Rahul Mahajan, a political analyst and author, told Al Jazeera the report was too pessimistic in some areas. "It seems very pessimistic about the future political prospects of
countries in the Third World. It seems to pay little or no attention to
indigenous or self-generated prospects for democratisation and greater
representation." Mahajan also said the report was "ridiculously optimistic" about the development of an alternative to oil as a fuel source. "Its important to remember this is the same group of 16 intelligence
agencies that got the Iraq WMD [weapons of mass destruction] analysis
so strikingly wrong." Aljazeera
14 novembre 2008
Retail sales fall by record amount in October
Retail sales plunged by the largest amount on record in October as the financial crisis and the slumping economy caused consumers to sharply cut back on their spending.The Commerce Department said Friday that retail sales fell by 2.8 percent last month, surpassing the old mark of a 2.65 percent drop in November 2001 in the wake of the terrorist attacks that year.
The decline in sales was led by a huge drop in auto purchases, but sales of all types of products from furniture to clothing fell as consumers retrenched.The 2.8 percent drop marked the fourth consecutive monthly decline in retail sales and was much bigger than the 2 percent fall economists expected.
The weakness was led by a 5.5 percent plunge in auto sales, the biggest drop since August 2005. Auto companies reported unit sales fell to the lowest level in 17 years as potential buyers, frightened by all the turmoil on Wall Street, stayed away from auto showrooms.Excluding autos, retail sales fell by 2.2 percent, also a record decline, underscoring the widespread weakness last month.
Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of total economic activity and weakness in this area was the major factor dragging down overall economic growth in the July-September quarter. The gross domestic product fell 0.3 percent at an annual rate during the third quarter, the strongest signal yet that the country has fallen into a recession.
Many economists believe the GDP will drop by an even bigger amount in the current October-December period and will continue falling through the first two quarters of next year. They are expecting that the financial crisis, the worst in seven decades, will produce the country's worst recession since the 1981-1982 downturn.
The government reported last week that the unemployment rate shot up to 6.5 percent in October, and many economists believe it will top 8 percent before the economy starts to mount a sustained rebound.
The retail sales report showed that sales at general merchandise stores, the category that includes big chains such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and department stores, fell by 0.4 percent, while sales at specialty clothing stores were down a bigger 1.4 percent.
Sales at furniture stores dropped by 2.5 percent, with sales at appliance stores and sport goods stores also showing declines.
One of the few areas to show an increase was the category that includes restaurants and bars which posted a small 0.3 percent gain, perhaps reflecting the desire of some to seek solace during turbulent economic times.
AP
